Current price sits below the 1-year average of $315, placing it in historically favorable accumulation territory based on actual 1Y price data. Post-halving supply dynamics are genuinely tightening — emissions halved in December 2025 and effects compound over 6–18 months per Bitcoin's historical pattern. The Grayscale ETF filing and Covenant-72B launch are real fundamental catalysts, not just narrative. However, RSI at 88 signals the asset is currently overbought following the 56% surge — a near-term pullback to this zone is likely before the next leg up.

The $220–$240 zone sits at the 20th percentile of the 1-year price range ($232), a well-defined support floor validated by actual price history. F&G readings of 11 (Extreme Fear) have historically marked local bottoms in assets with strong underlying fundamentals. With emissions halved and two genuine catalysts (ETF + Covenant-72B) in play, a dip to this level would represent the strongest risk/reward on the board. The 1Y low of $145 provides context — a drawdown to $220 is ~21% from current levels, a normal correction in a volatile asset.

RSI at 88 is deep into overbought territory — historically in crypto, this level precedes a 10–20% cooling period before the next directional move. Price is approaching the 50th percentile pivot at $322, which has acted as meaningful resistance/support throughout the past year. Volume has been strong during the rally, but the Fear & Greed index at 11 signals broader market exhaustion. The smart play at current levels is to hold existing positions but avoid adding new size until RSI normalises below 60.

$385 marks the 80th percentile of the 1-year price range — a level where sellers have historically emerged based on real price data. Taking partial profits (25–50% of position) here locks in gains from the accumulation zone while maintaining exposure to potential upside. With RSI already at 88, reaching $385+ without consolidation would require sustained, extraordinary buying pressure. This is a de-risking zone, not a full exit — keep a core position for the longer-term ETF/halving thesis.